miércoles, 20 de mayo de 2009

Betas used by Professors: a survey with 2,500 answers

Otro trabajo de Pablo Fernández, es esta ocasión es sobre las betas. En este trabajo ha recogido las respuestas a la encuesta en el documento “Betas used by Professors: a survey with 2,500 answers.” Se puede descargar en: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1407464.
ABSTRACT. We report 2,510 answers from professors from 65 countries and 934 institutions. 1,791 respondents use betas, but 107 of them do not justify the betas they use.
97.3% of the professors that justify the betas use regressions, webs, databases, textbooks or papers (the paper specifies which ones), although many of them admit that calculated betas “are poorly measured and have many problems”.
Only 0.9% of the professors justify the beta using exclusively personal judgement (named qualitative, common sense, intuitive, and logical magnitude betas by different professors).
The paper includes interesting comments from 160 professors.
We all admit that different investors may have different expected cash flows, but many of us affirm that the required return should be equal for everybody: That is a kind of schizophrenic approach to valuation. Most professors teach that the expected cash flows should be computed using common sense and good judgement about the company, its industry, the national economies… However, many professors teach a formula to calculate the discount rate (instead of using again common sense). Most of the professors acknowledge that there are problems estimating two ingredients of the formula (the beta and the market risk premium), but, nevertheless, most of them continue using it.

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